Paul Krugman is very much in the news for his views on fighting the fiscal phantoms. And from the bottom of my heart, I wish this economist a long life. But when the inevitable does happen, I wonder what he will be most remembered for?
1) Winning the 2008 Nobel Prize in Economics
2) Suggesting that America prepare for a non-existent alien invasion to fix her fiscal woes (apparently it will get people working)
3) Calling some of his fellow economists idiots on radio ("There are some idiots who've won Nobels")
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I am sure Krugman won't take offense. In fact, in that very interaction on air, Krugman did say that winning the Nobel prize did not shut up his critics but it certainly stopped people from calling him an idiot for 2 weeks.
I wonder if Alan Greenspan regarded Krugman as an idiot? Krugman certainly thought he was one. Years ago, Krugman wrote this: "If you want a simple model for predicting the unemployment rate in the US over the next few years, here it is: It will be what Greenspan wants it to be, + or - a random error reflecting the fact that he is not quite God." Last year in a blog post, he stated that "the exceptional Mr Greenspan continues his efforts to cement his reputation as the worst ex-Fed chairman in history".
What about Paul Volcker? In another blog post, Krugman stated that "Volcker is worrying about re-fighting the 1970s when we're actually re-fighting the 1930s. And fighting the wrong war is a good way to lose the one we're in."
So what does this mean? While we widely regard economists as brilliant, they tend to regard each other as boneheads.
Justin Wolfers in Freakonomics.com speaks of one of the best-kept secrets amongst economists. According to him, there is remarkable agreement among economists on most policy questions. This consensus is obscured by 2 laws of punditry.
First, for any issue, there's always at least one idiot willing to claim the spotlight to argue for it.
Second, that idiot may sound more respectable if he calls himself an economist. :) :) :)
A few months ago, a blogger on the Economist wrote about the history of macroeconomics. It stated that economists spent 30 years debating what the experience of the Great Depression meant and then another 30 seeing if they had arrived at the right answer.
That it was man made became the economic consensus; the rest was intensely debated by squawking heads. Not surprisingly. According to Edgar Fiedler (an economist of course), "ask 5 economists one question and you will get 5 different answers; 6 if one went to Harvard".
So the Keynesians focused on fiscal policy as an engine of stabilisation. They held that central banks were relatively helpless because interest rates fell to very low levels.
Others vociferously protested - Milton Friedman led this pack. He said that interest rates were low because the Fed has pursued a too-tight monetary policy. Friedman argued that the Depression indicated that monetary policy was extremely powerful and the central bank had an important influence over money supply and in the short run this could have a significant impact on the real economy.
Later on Robert Solow had something to say about this: "Everything reminds Milton Friedman of the money supply. Everything reminds me of sex, but I try to keep it out of my papers." If he is an idiot, he is an honest one!
But the funniest of all is this quote by John Kenneth Galbraith: "Economics is extremely useful as a form of employment for economists." Seriously, I am not one to judge specially since I hold no Ph.D in Economics. But was that not an idiotic statement? Or am I missing some profound meaning? If yes, then maybe I am the one who is an idiot. And on that, I am quite sure I could get a consensus.

1 comment:
haha! ... idiots! :P
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